Orange County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Orange County has experienced 39 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Orange County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, lightning, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 25% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (80th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Orange County has been designated in 39 declarations since 1977, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (19), fire (5), freezing (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.4 | 11 | 0 | $221.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 75.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 94.1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very High | 99.1 | 8 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 98.2 | 45 | 0 | $100 |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 99.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very High | 99.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.5 | 5 | 0 | $1.4M |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 34.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 45.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Orange County ranks in the 80th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 80th | High |
| Household characteristics | 38th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 79th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 95th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 23.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 70 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 40 in 2016–20 vs 30 in 2021–25 (-25% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Orange County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Orange County, Florida are strong wind, lightning, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Orange County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Orange County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (19 declarations).
Has Orange County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Orange County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Orange County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Brevard County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Seminole County, FL has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Orange County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Orange County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Orange County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Orange County's composite score of 98 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 98% of US counties.