Santa Cruz County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Santa Cruz County has experienced 8 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Santa Cruz County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 99 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (94th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Santa Cruz County has been designated in 8 declarations since 1978, covering 5 disaster types including flood (3), biological (2), hurricane (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Fire | Az-Ryan-Wildfire-4/30/2002 |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1978 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.4 | 32 | 1 | $1.3M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 99 | 51 | 47 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 9.9 | 15 | 0 | $500 |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 28.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.4 | 1 | 0 | $5K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 31 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Santa Cruz County ranks in the 94th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 94th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 99th | High |
| Household characteristics | 94th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 99th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 41st | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 99 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 48 in 2016–20 vs 51 in 2021–25 (+6% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Santa Cruz County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Santa Cruz County, Arizona are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Santa Cruz County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Santa Cruz County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (3 declarations).
Has Santa Cruz County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Santa Cruz County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Santa Cruz County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pima County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Hidalgo County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Santa Cruz County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Santa Cruz County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Santa Cruz County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Santa Cruz County's composite score of 88 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 88% of US counties.