Cochise County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Cochise County has experienced 14 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Cochise County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, heat wave, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 113% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (93rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Cochise County has been designated in 14 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including fire (5), flood (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Fire | Lizard Fire |
| 2011 | Fire | Monument Fire |
| 2011 | Fire | Horseshoe Two Fire |
| 2009 | Fire | Mule Pass Fire |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Fire | Ash Fire |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, High Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 93.8 | 83 | 2 | $3.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 78.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 99.1 | 45 | 35 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.4 | 3 | 0 | $250K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 34.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.4 | 33 | 0 | $101K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 69.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97 | 2 | 0 | $155K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 55.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 54.2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Cochise County ranks in the 93rd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 93rd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 71st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 96th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 85th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 97th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 97th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 96th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 57.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 166 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 53 in 2016–20 vs 113 in 2021–25 (+113% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Cochise County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Cochise County, Arizona are wildfire, heat wave, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Cochise County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Cochise County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Cochise County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Cochise County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Cochise County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pinal County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Hidalgo County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Cochise County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Cochise County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Cochise County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Cochise County's composite score of 93 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 93% of US counties.