Pinal County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Pinal County has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Cody Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Pinal County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 15% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (80th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Pinal County has been designated in 23 declarations since 1966, covering 6 disaster types including fire (10), flood (6), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Cody Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Simmons Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Shake Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Telegraph Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Margo Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Fire | Roach Fire |
| 2015 | Fire | Kearny River Fire |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 96.4 | 94 | 0 | $11.4M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 79.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 98.9 | 42 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.1 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 82.3 | 27 | 0 | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 75.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97 | 3 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Drought | Relatively High | 95.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 50.8 | 3 | 0 | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 26.2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Pinal County ranks in the 80th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 84th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 83rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 75th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 83rd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 83rd | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 37.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 174 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 81 in 2016–20 vs 93 in 2021–25 (+15% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Pinal County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Pinal County, Arizona are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Pinal County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Pinal County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (10 declarations).
Has Pinal County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Pinal County include Cody Fire (2025), Simmons Fire (2024), Shake Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1966.
How does Pinal County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Maricopa County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Graham County, AZ has the lowest (Relatively Low). Pinal County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Pinal County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Pinal County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Pinal County's composite score of 94 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 94% of US counties.