Maricopa County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Maricopa County has experienced 27 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Rose Fire in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
Maricopa County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, inland flooding, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 60% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (71st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Maricopa County has been designated in 27 declarations since 1966, covering 5 disaster types including fire (11), flood (10), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fire | Rose Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Boulder View Fire |
| 2023 | Fire | Diamond Fire |
| 2020 | Fire | Ocotillo Fire |
| 2020 | Fire | East Desert Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Fire | Bush Fire |
| 2020 | Fire | Avondale Fire |
| 2020 | Fire | Aquila Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very High | 99.9 | 505 | 11 | $29.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very High | 100 | 99 | 107 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 84 | 13 | 0 | $315K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 26.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very High | 99.5 | 98 | 0 | $50K |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 99.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 38.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 95.5 | 19 | 0 | $701K |
| Drought | Relatively High | 97.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 83.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 32.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Maricopa County ranks in the 71st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 71st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 62nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 57th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 85th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 69th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 76th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 79th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 13.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 734 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 282 in 2016–20 vs 452 in 2021–25 (+60% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Maricopa County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Maricopa County, Arizona are heat wave, inland flooding, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
Has Maricopa County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Maricopa County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (11 declarations).
Has Maricopa County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Maricopa County include Rose Fire (2024), Boulder View Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1966.
How does Maricopa County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pima County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and La Paz County, AZ has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Maricopa County is rated Very High overall.
How is Maricopa County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Maricopa County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Maricopa County's composite score of 100 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 100% of US counties.