Pima County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Pima County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Pima County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, wildfire, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 85% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (89th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Pima County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1966, covering 5 disaster types including flood (8), fire (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Fire | Big Horn Fire |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Fire | Aspen Fire |
| 2003 | Fire | Aspen Fire |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| 1991 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very High | 99.5 | 202 | 5 | $13.6M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 91.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very High | 99.8 | 98 | 131 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 37.5 | 9 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 18.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 91.8 | 48 | 0 | $228K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 82.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.7 | 27 | 0 | $350K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 69.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 58.7 | 8 | 0 | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 46.3 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Pima County ranks in the 89th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 89th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 75th | High |
| Household characteristics | 74th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 87th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 97th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 88th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 87th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 24.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 390 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 137 in 2016–20 vs 253 in 2021–25 (+85% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Pima County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Pima County, Arizona are heat wave, wildfire, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Pima County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Pima County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (8 declarations).
Has Pima County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Pima County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Pima County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Maricopa County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Graham County, AZ has the lowest (Relatively Low). Pima County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Pima County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Pima County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Pima County's composite score of 99 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 99% of US counties.