Graham County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Graham County has experienced 13 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Graham County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 77 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (85th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Graham County has been designated in 13 declarations since 1966, covering 5 disaster types including flood (7), biological (2), severe storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding |
| 1991 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1979 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1978 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 94.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 67.9 | 24 | 1 | $758K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 47.9 | 2 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95 | 44 | 12 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 13.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 32.4 | 7 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 73.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 93.4 | 2 | 0 | $100K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 42.9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 54.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Graham County ranks in the 85th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 85th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 70th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 66th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 87th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 95th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 91st | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 92nd | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 47.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 77 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 39 in 2016–20 vs 38 in 2021–25 (-3% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Graham County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Graham County, Arizona are heat wave, wildfire, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Graham County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Graham County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Graham County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Graham County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Graham County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Pinal County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Hidalgo County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Graham County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Graham County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Graham County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Graham County's composite score of 65 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 65% of US counties.