McKinley County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McKinley County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
McKinley County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, winter weather, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 28 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McKinley County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1972, covering 5 disaster types including flood (5), biological (2), fire (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snow Melt & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 78.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | 22 | 3 | $125K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 77.6 | 3 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 39.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 4.5 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 90.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 20.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 87.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 27.3 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 52.4 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McKinley County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 93rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 92nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 100th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 90th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 71.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 28 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 14 in 2016–20 vs 14 in 2021–25 (0% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McKinley County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McKinley County, New Mexico are lightning, winter weather, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has McKinley County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McKinley County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (5 declarations).
Has McKinley County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for McKinley County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does McKinley County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bernalillo County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Cibola County, NM has the lowest (Relatively Low). McKinley County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is McKinley County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McKinley County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McKinley County's composite score of 78 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 78% of US counties.