Apache County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Apache County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Greer Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Apache County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, wildfire, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 133% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Apache County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including flood (5), fire (4), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Greer Fire |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Fire | Wallow Fire |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2004 | Fire | Three Forks Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 97.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 80.7 | 42 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 67.7 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 46.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 3.6 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 8.6 | 5 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 90.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 53.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 62.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 50.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 57.3 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Apache County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 89th | High |
| Household characteristics | 93rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 98th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 94th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 85th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 90th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 80.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 50 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 15 in 2016–20 vs 35 in 2021–25 (+133% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Apache County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Apache County, Arizona are lightning, wildfire, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Apache County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Apache County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is flood (5 declarations).
Has Apache County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Apache County include Greer Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1970.
How does Apache County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Coconino County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Catron County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Apache County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Apache County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Apache County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Apache County's composite score of 79 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 79% of US counties.