San Juan County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
San Juan County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
San Juan County's highest-rated hazards are drought, lightning, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 82% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. San Juan County has been designated in 11 declarations since 1977, covering 6 disaster types including fire (4), biological (2), flood (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2012 | Fire | Blanco (Cr 4901) Fire |
| 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding And Heavy Rains |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | 22 | 1 | $3.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 83.9 | 4 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 22.6 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.8 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 23.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 89.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 38.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 87.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 96.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 26.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
San Juan County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 96th | High |
| Household characteristics | 92nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 94th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 82nd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 49th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 49.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 31 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 11 in 2016–20 vs 20 in 2021–25 (+82% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in San Juan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in San Juan County, New Mexico are drought, lightning, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has San Juan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. San Juan County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (4 declarations).
Has San Juan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for San Juan County include South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does San Juan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Rio Arriba County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Dolores County, CO has the lowest (Very Low). San Juan County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is San Juan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
San Juan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. San Juan County's composite score of 88 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 88% of US counties.