Rio Arriba County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Rio Arriba County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Rio Arriba County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, landslide, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 44% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (76th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Rio Arriba County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1973, covering 6 disaster types including fire (5), severe storm (4), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Extreme Cold Temperatures |
| 2011 | Fire | Las Conchas Fire |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Fire | Nm - Borrego Fire - 5-23-02 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 96.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.4 | 16 | 0 | $3.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 79.4 | 14 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 30.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 27.5 | 12 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 12.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 47.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 9.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 30.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 94.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 70.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 41.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Rio Arriba County ranks in the 76th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 72nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 94th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 99th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 25th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 82nd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 88th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 77.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 28 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 18 in 2016–20 vs 10 in 2021–25 (-44% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Rio Arriba County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Rio Arriba County, New Mexico are wildfire, landslide, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Rio Arriba County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Rio Arriba County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (5 declarations).
Has Rio Arriba County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Rio Arriba County include South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Rio Arriba County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Sandoval County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Los Alamos County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Rio Arriba County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Rio Arriba County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Rio Arriba County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Rio Arriba County's composite score of 81 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 81% of US counties.