Coconino County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Coconino County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Tunnel 2 Fire in 2022. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Coconino County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 159% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (80th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Coconino County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including fire (11), flood (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Fire | Tunnel 2 Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Pipeline Fire |
| 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Fire | Museum Fire |
| 2018 | Fire | Tinder Fire |
| 2015 | Fire | Slide Fire |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2010 | Fire | Twin Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 96.5 | 171 | 5 | $12.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.4 | 11 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 63.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 24.3 | 10 | 0 | $350K |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 57.1 | 32 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 57.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.6 | 6 | 1 | $600K |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively Moderate | 81.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Relatively Low | 85.7 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Coconino County ranks in the 80th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 81st | High |
| Household characteristics | 6th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 85th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 99th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 96th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 53.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 219 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 61 in 2016–20 vs 158 in 2021–25 (+159% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Coconino County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Coconino County, Arizona are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Coconino County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Coconino County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2022. The most common disaster type on record is fire (11 declarations).
Has Coconino County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Coconino County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Tunnel 2 Fire in 2022.
How does Coconino County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Mohave County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Kane County, UT has the lowest (Very Low). Coconino County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Coconino County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Coconino County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Coconino County's composite score of 94 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 94% of US counties.