Flagstaff, AZ
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Flagstaff is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk — near the middle compared to other US counties — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Coconino County, AZ. The county's highest-rated hazards are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather.
Storm events near Flagstaff
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Flagstaff's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Flagstaff itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Coconino County's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Flagstaff along with the rest of the county, not a Flagstaff-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 99.4 | Relatively High |
| Inland Flooding | 96.5 | Relatively High |
| Coastal Flooding | — | Not Applicable |
| Earthquake | 90.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| Heat Wave | 63.9 | Relatively Low |
| Tornado | 24.3 | Very Low |
| Avalanche | 81.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| Cold Wave | 80.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Drought | 25.1 | Very Low |
| Hail | 57.1 | Relatively Low |
| Hurricane | 0 | No Rating |
| Ice Storm | 57.6 | Relatively Low |
| Landslide | 97.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| Lightning | 99.6 | Very High |
| Strong Wind | 14.4 | Very Low |
| Tsunami | — | Not Applicable |
| Volcanic Activity | 85.7 | Relatively Low |
| Winter Weather | 98.3 | Very High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Coconino County risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
More on Coconino County:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Flagstaff, AZ at risk of?
Flagstaff is rated Relatively Moderate for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — near the middle compared to other US counties. The highest-rated hazards for Coconino County, where Flagstaff is located, are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather.
What is Flagstaff's biggest natural hazard risk?
Lightning is the highest-rated hazard for Coconino County, where Flagstaff is located, scoring 99.6 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Very High").
Is Flagstaff a high-risk area for natural disasters?
Somewhat — Flagstaff carries near the middle compared to other US counties for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Relatively Moderate" for Coconino County.
Has Flagstaff had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 3 tornado, 20 hail, 74 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Flagstaff since 2016.