Navajo County, AZ
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Navajo County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Navajo County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 150% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (98th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Navajo County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including flood (7), fire (6), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Potato Fire |
| 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Fire | Kinishba Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.5 | 59 | 1 | $30K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.2 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 56.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 34.8 | 13 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 40.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 96.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 63.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 73 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 99.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 50.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 53.7 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Navajo County ranks in the 98th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 98th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 89th | High |
| Household characteristics | 99th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 91st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 94th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 71st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 77 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 22 in 2016–20 vs 55 in 2021–25 (+150% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Navajo County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Navajo County, Arizona are lightning, wildfire, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Navajo County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Navajo County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Navajo County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Navajo County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2021.
How does Navajo County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Coconino County, AZ has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cibola County, NM has the lowest (Relatively Low). Navajo County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Navajo County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Navajo County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Navajo County's composite score of 88 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 88% of US counties.