Valencia County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Valencia County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Valencia County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, inland flooding, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 33% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (88th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Valencia County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1973, covering 5 disaster types including fire (9), biological (2), flood (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Fire | Rio Grande Fire |
| 2025 | Fire | Desert Willow Fire Complex |
| 2025 | Fire | Cotton 2 Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, And Debris Flows |
| 2022 | Fire | Big Hole Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Fire | Ironworks Fire |
| 2007 | Fire | Belen Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 87.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.6 | 10 | 0 | $8.3M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.4 | 17 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 70.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 19.2 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 64.5 | 14 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 12.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 16.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 56.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 9.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 16.5 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 17.9 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Valencia County ranks in the 88th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 88th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 83rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 93rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 96th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 62nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 54th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 25 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 15 in 2016–20 vs 10 in 2021–25 (-33% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Valencia County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Valencia County, New Mexico are earthquake, inland flooding, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Valencia County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Valencia County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (9 declarations).
Has Valencia County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Valencia County include Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Rio Grande Fire (2025), Desert Willow Fire Complex (2025), Cotton 2 Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Valencia County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bernalillo County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Torrance County, NM has the lowest (Relatively Low). Valencia County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Valencia County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Valencia County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Valencia County's composite score of 82 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 82% of US counties.