Bernalillo County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Bernalillo County has experienced 11 federally declared disasters since 2000, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Bernalillo County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, earthquake, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 28% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (79th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Bernalillo County has been designated in 11 declarations since 2000, covering 4 disaster types including fire (6), biological (2), severe storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Fire | Dog Head Fire |
| 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | White Fire |
| 2006 | Fire | Malpais Fire |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2003 | Fire | Nm-Bosque Fire-06-25-2003 |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 total declarations since 2000.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 96.3 | 31 | 8 | $3.8M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 97.7 | 2 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 56.1 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 95 | 77 | 0 | $826K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 65.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 56.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.4 | 2 | 0 | $11K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 57.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 43 | 1 | 0 | $25K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 21.1 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 21.2 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Bernalillo County ranks in the 79th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 79th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 73rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 66th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 94th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 72nd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 77th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 82nd | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 14.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 114 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 50 in 2016–20 vs 64 in 2021–25 (+28% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Bernalillo County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Bernalillo County, New Mexico are winter weather, earthquake, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Bernalillo County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Bernalillo County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is fire (6 declarations).
Has Bernalillo County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Bernalillo County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Bernalillo County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Santa Fe County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Los Alamos County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Bernalillo County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Bernalillo County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Bernalillo County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Bernalillo County's composite score of 94 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 94% of US counties.