Chaves County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Chaves County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 1998, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Chaves County's highest-rated hazards are drought, strong wind, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 36% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Chaves County has been designated in 9 declarations since 1998, covering 5 disaster types including flood (3), biological (2), fire (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storm And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.3 | 39 | 2 | $515.4M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 31 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 20.6 | 8 | 0 | $2.0M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 66.5 | 80 | 0 | $257K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 93.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 85.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 34.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.4 | 2 | 0 | $75K |
| Drought | Relatively High | 98.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 26.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 2.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 54.7 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Chaves County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 87th | High |
| Household characteristics | 99th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 94th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 89th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 86th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 84th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 38.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 130 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 55 in 2016–20 vs 75 in 2021–25 (+36% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Chaves County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Chaves County, New Mexico are drought, strong wind, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Chaves County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Chaves County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is flood (3 declarations).
Has Chaves County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Chaves County include Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storm And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1998.
How does Chaves County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Lea County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and De Baca County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Chaves County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Chaves County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Chaves County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Chaves County's composite score of 88 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 88% of US counties.