Otero County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Otero County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1984, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Otero County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 17% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (93rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Otero County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1984, covering 5 disaster types including fire (12), severe storm (5), flood (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Salt Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Fire | Soldier Canyon Fire |
| 2016 | Fire | Timberon Fire |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1984.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.6 | 29 | 0 | $12K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.7 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 68.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 11.3 | 2 | 0 | $275K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 23.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 75 | 31 | 0 | $51K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 38.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 79.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 25 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 76.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 68.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 37.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 49.2 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Otero County ranks in the 93rd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 93rd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 86th | High |
| Household characteristics | 92nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 89th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 87th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 96th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 98th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 59.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 63 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 29 in 2016–20 vs 34 in 2021–25 (+17% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Otero County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Otero County, New Mexico are wildfire, winter weather, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Otero County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Otero County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (12 declarations).
Has Otero County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Otero County include Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding (2024), South Fork Fire (2024), Salt Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1984.
How does Otero County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Doña Ana County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Hudspeth County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Otero County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Otero County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Otero County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Otero County's composite score of 85 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 85% of US counties.