Lincoln County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 35 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 130% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (83rd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 35 declarations since 1965, covering 5 disaster types including fire (17), flood (9), severe storm (6).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Salt Fire |
| 2024 | Fire | Blue 2 Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, And Debris Flows |
| 2022 | Fire | Nogal Canyon Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Mcbride Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Three Rivers Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 35 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 77.6 | 81 | 1 | $3.8M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 25.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 10.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 39.4 | 51 | 0 | $25K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 16.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 86.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 68.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 11.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76.3 | 12 | 3 | $60.5M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 37.1 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 47.6 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 83rd percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 83rd | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 81st | High |
| Household characteristics | 92nd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 79th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 53rd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 96th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 78.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 152 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 46 in 2016–20 vs 106 in 2021–25 (+130% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, New Mexico are wildfire, winter weather, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 35 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is fire (17 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County include Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, And Flooding (2024), South Fork Fire (2024), Salt Fire (2024), Blue 2 Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Chaves County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and De Baca County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 80 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 80% of US counties.