Guadalupe County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Guadalupe County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 1998, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Guadalupe County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, winter weather, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 38% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (88th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Guadalupe County has been designated in 9 declarations since 1998, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (3), biological (2), fire (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 29.9 | 7 | 0 | $100K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 16.6 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 4.8 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 13.6 | 39 | 0 | $33K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 4.4 | 1 | 0 | $10K |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 52.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 6.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 12 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 28.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 1.2 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 27.7 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Guadalupe County ranks in the 88th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 88th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 82nd | High |
| Household characteristics | 78th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 99th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 80th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 85th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 85th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 60.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 50 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 21 in 2016–20 vs 29 in 2021–25 (+38% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Guadalupe County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Guadalupe County, New Mexico are wildfire, winter weather, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Guadalupe County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Guadalupe County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (3 declarations).
Has Guadalupe County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Guadalupe County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Guadalupe County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Santa Fe County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and De Baca County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). Guadalupe County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Guadalupe County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Guadalupe County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Guadalupe County's composite score of 9 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 9% of US counties.