San Miguel County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
San Miguel County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Las Tusas Fire in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
San Miguel County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, inland flooding, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 66% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (99th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. San Miguel County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1965, covering 5 disaster types including fire (10), severe storm (4), flood (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Fire | Las Tusas Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, And Debris Flows |
| 2022 | Fire | Hermit'S Peak Fire |
| 2022 | Fire | Calf Canyon Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2014 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2013 | Fire | Tres Lagunas Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 97.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 83.4 | 48 | 3 | $3.8M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 48.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 14.8 | 5 | 0 | $100K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 41.8 | 94 | 1 | $365K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 22.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 4.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 34 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 68.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 49.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 75.1 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 25.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
San Miguel County ranks in the 99th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 99th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 88th | High |
| Household characteristics | 96th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 99th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 99th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 88th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 91st | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 149 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 56 in 2016–20 vs 93 in 2021–25 (+66% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in San Miguel County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in San Miguel County, New Mexico are wildfire, inland flooding, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has San Miguel County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. San Miguel County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is fire (10 declarations).
Has San Miguel County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for San Miguel County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Las Tusas Fire in 2023.
How does San Miguel County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Santa Fe County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Harding County, NM has the lowest (Very Low). San Miguel County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is San Miguel County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
San Miguel County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. San Miguel County's composite score of 75 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 75% of US counties.