Lea County, NM
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lea County has experienced 7 federally declared disasters since 1992, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Lea County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, hail, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 98% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (94th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lea County has been designated in 7 declarations since 1992, covering 5 disaster types including biological (2), fire (2), severe storm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Southeast New Mexico Fire Complex |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| 1992 | Flood | Thunderstorms, Hail & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | 14 | 0 | $22K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 29.3 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 77.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 94.4 | 110 | 0 | $3.7M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 89.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 64.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 78.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 91.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 86.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lea County ranks in the 94th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 94th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 92nd | High |
| Household characteristics | 83rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 95th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 88th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 95th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 93rd | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 37.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 128 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 43 in 2016–20 vs 85 in 2021–25 (+98% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lea County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lea County, New Mexico are wildfire, hail, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Lea County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lea County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is biological (2 declarations).
Has Lea County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Lea County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Lea County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Eddy County, NM has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Loving County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Lea County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Lea County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lea County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lea County's composite score of 86 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 86% of US counties.