Dauphin County, PA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Dauphin County has experienced 22 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Dauphin County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, inland flooding, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 69% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Dauphin County has been designated in 22 declarations since 1972, covering 5 disaster types including flood (7), hurricane (5), snowstorm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants Of Hurricane Ida |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2011 | Flood | Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 38.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 94.8 | 14 | 1 | $100K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.4 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | 4 | 0 | $90K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 89.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 23.7 | 18 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 93.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 51.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 88.3 | 1 | 0 | $20K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 49.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 84.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 41.1 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Dauphin County ranks in the 55th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 35th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 63rd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 75th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 63rd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 32nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 33rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 31.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 43 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 27 in 2021–25 (+69% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Dauphin County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Dauphin County, Pennsylvania are winter weather, inland flooding, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Dauphin County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Dauphin County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Dauphin County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Dauphin County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Remnants Of Hurricane Ida in 2021.
How does Dauphin County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Cumberland County, PA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Juniata County, PA has the lowest (Very Low). Dauphin County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Dauphin County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Dauphin County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Dauphin County's composite score of 91 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 91% of US counties.