Northumberland County, PA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Northumberland County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Northumberland County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, inland flooding, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Northumberland County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including flood (7), severe storm (4), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2011 | Flood | Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding Associated With Tropical Depression Frances |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 31.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 63.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 59.2 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 46.9 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 19.5 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 84.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 48.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 47.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 71.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 82.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 42.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Northumberland County ranks in the 42nd percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 42nd | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 34th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 44th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 26th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 65th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 28th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 29th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 47.8% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Northumberland County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Northumberland County, Pennsylvania are winter weather, inland flooding, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Northumberland County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Northumberland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Northumberland County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Northumberland County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Northumberland County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Dauphin County, PA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Montour County, PA has the lowest (Very Low). Northumberland County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Northumberland County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Northumberland County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Northumberland County's composite score of 79 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 79% of US counties.