Dakota County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Dakota County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Dakota County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, hail, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 30% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (15th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Dakota County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1965, covering 6 disaster types including flood (6), severe storm (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2010 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1998 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 1997 | Flood | Severe Flooding, High Winds,Severe Storms |
| 1996 | Flood | Flooding And Severe Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 39.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88.7 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 21.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.6 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.4 | 13 | 0 | $2.1M |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 97.5 | 106 | 0 | $251K |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 99.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 55.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 90.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 84.8 | 1 | 0 | $10K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 70.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Dakota County ranks in the 15th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 6th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 41st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 60th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 21st | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 19th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 19th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 20.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 131 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 57 in 2016–20 vs 74 in 2021–25 (+30% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Dakota County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Dakota County, Minnesota are strong wind, hail, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Dakota County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Dakota County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is flood (6 declarations).
Has Dakota County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Dakota County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Dakota County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Hennepin County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Goodhue County, MN has the lowest (Relatively Low). Dakota County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Dakota County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Dakota County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Dakota County's composite score of 90 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 90% of US counties.