Zavala County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Zavala County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1984, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Zavala County's highest-rated hazards are drought, heat wave, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 20 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (91st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Zavala County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1984, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (4), severe storm (3), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1984.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 35.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 67 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 76.8 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 60.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 43.3 | 14 | 0 | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 8.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 21.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 56.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 37.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 94.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Zavala County ranks in the 91st percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 91st | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 88th | High |
| Household characteristics | 99th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 100th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 43rd | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 70th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 73rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 41.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 20 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 8 in 2016–20 vs 12 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Zavala County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Zavala County, Texas are drought, heat wave, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Zavala County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Zavala County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (4 declarations).
Has Zavala County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Zavala County include Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1984.
How does Zavala County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Uvalde County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Kinney County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Zavala County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Zavala County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Zavala County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Zavala County's composite score of 54 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 54% of US counties.