Medina County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Medina County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Medina County's highest-rated hazards are drought, lightning, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 25% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (74th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Medina County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1993, covering 7 disaster types including flood (4), hurricane (4), fire (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Erin |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 85.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 77.2 | 10 | 1 | $50K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 14.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 74 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 60.9 | 1 | 0 | $500K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 85.6 | 54 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 85.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 72.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 30.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 39.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 90.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Medina County ranks in the 74th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 74th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 40th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 86th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 91st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 82nd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 77th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 78th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 77.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 72 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 32 in 2016–20 vs 40 in 2021–25 (+25% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Medina County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Medina County, Texas are drought, lightning, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Medina County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Medina County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (4 declarations).
Has Medina County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Medina County include Flooding (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Medina County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bexar County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Frio County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Low). Medina County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Medina County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Medina County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Medina County's composite score of 69 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 69% of US counties.