Atascosa County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Atascosa County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Atascosa County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hail, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 71% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (87th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Atascosa County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1967, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (6), severe storm (4), fire (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2025 | Fire | Duke Fire |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 74.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 61 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 18.4 | 13 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 80.5 | 9 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 66.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 87.7 | 32 | 0 | $500 |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 51.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 55.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 36.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 46.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 92.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Atascosa County ranks in the 87th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 87th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 83rd | High |
| Household characteristics | 83rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 96th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 67th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 80th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 70.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 46 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 17 in 2016–20 vs 29 in 2021–25 (+71% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Atascosa County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Atascosa County, Texas are drought, hail, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Atascosa County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Atascosa County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (6 declarations).
Has Atascosa County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Atascosa County include Flooding (2026), Duke Fire (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1967.
How does Atascosa County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bexar County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and McMullen County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Atascosa County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Atascosa County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Atascosa County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Atascosa County's composite score of 61 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 61% of US counties.