Karnes County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Karnes County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Karnes County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hurricane, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 23 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (94th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Karnes County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1967, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (6), severe ice storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 59.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 63.8 | 9 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 11.7 | 57 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 62.2 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 61.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 85.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 75.9 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 27.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 27.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 46.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Karnes County ranks in the 94th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 94th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 82nd | High |
| Household characteristics | 60th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 95th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 100th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 23 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 7 in 2016–20 vs 16 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Karnes County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Karnes County, Texas are drought, hurricane, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Karnes County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Karnes County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (6 declarations).
Has Karnes County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Karnes County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm in 2021.
How does Karnes County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, DeWitt County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Goliad County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Karnes County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Karnes County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Karnes County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Karnes County's composite score of 58 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 58% of US counties.