McMullen County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McMullen County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
McMullen County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, drought, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Very Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 25 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (81st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McMullen County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1967, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (7), severe ice storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 27.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 2.2 | 8 | 0 | $50K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.1 | 3 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.8 | 10 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 54.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 11.4 | 8 | 0 | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 12 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 16.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 38.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McMullen County ranks in the 81st percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81st | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 69th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 100th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 92nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 27th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 75th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 77th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 88.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 25 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 12 in 2016–20 vs 13 in 2021–25 (+8% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McMullen County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McMullen County, Texas are hurricane, drought, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has McMullen County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McMullen County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (7 declarations).
Has McMullen County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for McMullen County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm in 2021.
How does McMullen County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bee County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and La Salle County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). McMullen County is rated Very Low overall.
How is McMullen County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McMullen County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McMullen County's composite score of 1 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 1% of US counties.