Shelby County, KY
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Shelby County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1996, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Shelby County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, tornado, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 31 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is relatively low (29th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Shelby County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1996, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (10), tornado (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1996.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 61.4 | 12 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 45.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 87.8 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 30.2 | 13 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 93.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 40.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 60.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 59.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.5 | 1 | 0 | $10K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 31.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Shelby County ranks in the 29th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 26th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 38th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 54th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 30th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 14th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 13th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 74.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 31 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 5 in 2016–20 vs 26 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Shelby County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Shelby County, Kentucky are strong wind, tornado, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Shelby County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Shelby County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1996, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Shelby County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Shelby County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1996.
How does Shelby County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Jefferson County, KY has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Spencer County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Shelby County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Shelby County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Shelby County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Shelby County's composite score of 62 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 62% of US counties.