Jefferson County, KY

FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data

Population: 782,833 · Cities: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government , Jeffersontown , St. Matthews , Shively , Lyndon

Relatively High Riskier than 98% of US counties
Very Low Relatively Low Relatively Moderate Relatively High Very High

Jefferson County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Jefferson County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, inland flooding, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 41% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.

Past disasters & FEMA designations

A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Jefferson County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1974, covering 9 disaster types including severe storm (12), flood (4), biological (2).

2002–2026
Year Type Event name
2026 Winter Storm Severe Winter Storm
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
2025 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides
2024 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides
2023 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides
2020 Biological Covid-19 Pandemic
2020 Biological Covid-19
2018 Flood Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides

Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1974.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.

Risk by hazard type

Hazard Risk rating Risk score Recorded events Deaths Prop. damage
Wildfire Very Low 56.1 0 0
Inland Flooding Relatively High 99.1 106 1 $1.1M
Coastal Flooding Not Applicable 0 0
Earthquake Relatively Moderate 96.8
Heat Wave Relatively High 96.9 0 0
Tornado Very High 99.7 11 0 $500K
Hurricane Very Low 35.8 0 0
Hail Relatively Moderate 89.7 55 0
Strong Wind Relatively High 90.8 0 0
Winter Weather Relatively High 92.3 0 0
Ice Storm Relatively High 85.7
Cold Wave Relatively High 94.8
Lightning Relatively High 91.3 3 0 $25K
Drought Very Low 21.2 0 0
Landslide Very Low 35.4 0 0
Avalanche Not Applicable
Tsunami Not Applicable
Volcanic Activity Not Applicable

Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.

Community vulnerability

Jefferson County ranks in the 62nd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.

SVI theme Percentile Vulnerability level
Overall 62nd Moderate
Socioeconomic status 47th Low
Household characteristics 67th Moderate
Racial & ethnic minority status 72nd Moderate
Housing type & transportation 65th Moderate

Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.

Future risk outlook

Wildfire metric National percentile Level
Burn probability 13th Very Low
Risk to homes 12th Very Low
Buildings in direct exposure zone 25.3%

NOAA tracked 175 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 110 in 2016–20 vs 65 in 2021–25 (-41% — frequency decreasing).

Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.

Nearby counties

Compare Jefferson County with other counties → All Kentucky counties →

Frequently asked questions

What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Jefferson County?

According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Jefferson County, Kentucky are tornado, inland flooding, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Has Jefferson County received federal disaster declarations?

Yes. Jefferson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (12 declarations).

Has Jefferson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?

Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, And Landslides (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, And Mudslides (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1974.

How does Jefferson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?

Among neighboring counties, Clark County, IN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Spencer County, KY has the lowest (Very Low). Jefferson County is rated Relatively High overall.

How is Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?

Jefferson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Jefferson County's composite score of 98 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 98% of US counties.

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