Real County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Real County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Real County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, inland flooding, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 24% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (78th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Real County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1993, covering 7 disaster types including flood (5), severe storm (3), fire (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 72.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 68.5 | 20 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 19.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 46.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 23.2 | 37 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 24.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 18 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 32.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 41.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Real County ranks in the 78th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 78th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 55th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 98th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 78th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 90.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 58 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 33 in 2016–20 vs 25 in 2021–25 (-24% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Real County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Real County, Texas are wildfire, inland flooding, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Real County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Real County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (5 declarations).
Has Real County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Real County include Flooding (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Real County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Kerr County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Kinney County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Real County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Real County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Real County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Real County's composite score of 43 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 43% of US counties.