Kerr County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Kerr County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1978, most recently Flooding in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Kerr County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, winter weather, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 123 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (74th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Kerr County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1978, covering 8 disaster types including flood (6), fire (4), hurricane (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1978.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 84.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 85.2 | 22 | 117 | $200.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 16.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 67.4 | 5 | 2 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 78.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 81.1 | 97 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 63.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 9.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 55.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 89.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 77.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Kerr County ranks in the 74th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 74th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 57th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 71st | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 84th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 74th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 76th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 72.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 123 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 64 in 2016–20 vs 59 in 2021–25 (-8% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Kerr County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Kerr County, Texas are lightning, winter weather, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Kerr County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Kerr County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (6 declarations).
Has Kerr County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Kerr County include Flooding (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1978.
How does Kerr County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bandera County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Mason County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Kerr County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Kerr County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Kerr County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Kerr County's composite score of 77 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 77% of US counties.