Orange County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Orange County has experienced 42 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Chemical Release in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
Orange County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, wildfire, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 45% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Orange County has been designated in 42 declarations since 1969, covering 8 disaster types including fire (19), flood (11), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Chemical | Chemical Release |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2022 | Fire | Coastal Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Silverado Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Bond Fire |
| 2021 | Fire | Blue Ridge Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 42 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very High | 99.8 | 75 | 0 | $1.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very High | 99.9 | 293 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.2 | 43 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | 2 | 0 | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 52.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 66.9 | 1 | 0 | $2K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.7 | 8 | 0 | $100K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 13.7 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Relatively Low | 56.9 | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Orange County ranks in the 57th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 57th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 54th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 18th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 66th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 99th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 100th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 2.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 125 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 51 in 2016–20 vs 74 in 2021–25 (+45% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Orange County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Orange County, California are earthquake, wildfire, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very High — among the most at-risk counties in the country.
Has Orange County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Orange County has received 42 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is fire (19 declarations).
Has Orange County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Orange County include Chemical Release (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Orange County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Los Angeles County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Kern County, CA has the lowest (Relatively High). Orange County is rated Very High overall.
How is Orange County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Orange County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Orange County's composite score of 100 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 100% of US counties.