Kern County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Kern County has experienced 40 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Tropical Storm Hilary in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Kern County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, heat wave, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 21% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Kern County has been designated in 40 declarations since 1967, covering 9 disaster types including fire (17), flood (7), severe storm (6).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Hilary |
| 2024 | Fire | Borel Fire |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Fire | French Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Earthquake | Earthquakes |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2016 | Fire | Erskine Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.5 | 319 | 0 | $303K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 99.4 | 246 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 99.5 | 24 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 19.8 | 2 | 0 | $1K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.7 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 94.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 98.5 | 51 | 0 | $152K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 46.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 59.6 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Kern County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 96th | High |
| Household characteristics | 83rd | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 95th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 93rd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 93rd | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 95th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 21.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 400 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 181 in 2016–20 vs 219 in 2021–25 (+21% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Kern County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Kern County, California are wildfire, heat wave, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Kern County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Kern County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (17 declarations).
Has Kern County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Kern County include Tropical Storm Hilary (2024), Borel Fire (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1967.
How does Kern County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Los Angeles County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Kings County, CA has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Kern County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Kern County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Kern County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Kern County's composite score of 99 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 99% of US counties.