Mesa County, CO
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Mesa County has experienced 8 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Covid-19 in 2020. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Mesa County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, lightning, and avalanche, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 238% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Mesa County has been designated in 8 declarations since 1977, covering 5 disaster types including fire (3), biological (2), coastal storm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Fire | Pine Gulch Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2005 | Coastal Storm | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2002 | Fire | Co - Dierich Fire - 06/10/02 |
| 1984 | Flood | Severe Storms, Mudslides, Landslides & Flooding |
| 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.9 | 35 | 1 | $177K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 84.7 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 59.3 | 5 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 17.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 21.2 | 14 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 33.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 30.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively High | 99.4 | 15 | 0 | $194K |
| Avalanche | Relatively High | 90.1 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 18.6 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Mesa County ranks in the 65th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 65th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 58th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 65th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 54th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 67th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 80th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 85th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 24.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 70 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 54 in 2021–25 (+238% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Mesa County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Mesa County, Colorado are landslide, lightning, and avalanche. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Mesa County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Mesa County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2020. The most common disaster type on record is fire (3 declarations).
Has Mesa County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Mesa County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Covid-19 in 2020.
How does Mesa County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Garfield County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Grand County, UT has the lowest (Very Low). Mesa County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Mesa County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Mesa County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Mesa County's composite score of 75 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 75% of US counties.