Madera County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Madera County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Madera County's highest-rated hazards are drought, wildfire, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 154% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (96th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Madera County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including fire (7), flood (6), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2021 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2020 | Fire | Creek Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Fire | Railroad Fire |
| 2017 | Fire | Mission Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 94 | 54 | 0 | $20K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 96.9 | 16 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.8 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 19.3 | 3 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 76.4 | 3 | 0 | $1K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 72.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very High | 99.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 97.8 | 8 | 0 | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 34.5 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 62.9 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Madera County ranks in the 96th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 96th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 96th | High |
| Household characteristics | 90th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 95th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 79th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 60.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 85 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 24 in 2016–20 vs 61 in 2021–25 (+154% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Madera County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Madera County, California are drought, wildfire, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Madera County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Madera County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is fire (7 declarations).
Has Madera County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Madera County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023.
How does Madera County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fresno County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Mono County, CA has the lowest (Relatively Low). Madera County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Madera County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Madera County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Madera County's composite score of 96 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 96% of US counties.