Merced County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Merced County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Merced County's highest-rated hazards are drought, earthquake, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 257% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Merced County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (6), flood (5), freezing (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2007 | Freezing | Severe Freeze |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 94.7 | 109 | 0 | $10.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.5 | 10 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.7 | 24 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 67.1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 20.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 84.6 | 1 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Drought | Very High | 99.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 54.7 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 3.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 50.2 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Merced County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 97th | High |
| Household characteristics | 89th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 97th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 85th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 89th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 88th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 30.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 137 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 30 in 2016–20 vs 107 in 2021–25 (+257% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Merced County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Merced County, California are drought, earthquake, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Merced County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Merced County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).
Has Merced County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Merced County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides in 2023.
How does Merced County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Santa Clara County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and San Benito County, CA has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Merced County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Merced County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Merced County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Merced County's composite score of 97 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 97% of US counties.