Tuolumne County, CA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Tuolumne County has experienced 22 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Dove Fire in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Tuolumne County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, landslide, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 50% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Tuolumne County has been designated in 22 declarations since 1965, covering 6 disaster types including flood (7), severe storm (6), fire (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Dove Fire |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2020 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
| 2017 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively High | 99.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81 | 18 | 0 | $93.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 71 | 1 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 7.9 | 1 | 0 | $20K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 10.3 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 64.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | No Rating | 0 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 73.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 74.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 91.2 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 58.9 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 61.6 | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Tuolumne County ranks in the 63rd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 63rd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 55th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 62nd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 54th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 69th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 98th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 99th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 83.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 24 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 8 in 2021–25 (-50% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Tuolumne County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Tuolumne County, California are wildfire, landslide, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Tuolumne County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Tuolumne County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is flood (7 declarations).
Has Tuolumne County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Tuolumne County include Dove Fire (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1965.
How does Tuolumne County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Madera County, CA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Alpine County, CA has the lowest (Very Low). Tuolumne County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Tuolumne County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Tuolumne County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Tuolumne County's composite score of 85 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 85% of US counties.