Lincoln County, NE
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1994, most recently Wildfires in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are hail, winter weather, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 23% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1994, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (11), flood (3), fire (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1994.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 74.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 48.5 | 16 | 0 | $511K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 31.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 62.8 | 4 | 0 | $140K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 94.3 | 210 | 0 | $206K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 51.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 90.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 27.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 64.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 45 | 2 | 0 | $5K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 80.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 40.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 46th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 46th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 37th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 78th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 39th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 37th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 60th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 40.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 232 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 131 in 2016–20 vs 101 in 2021–25 (-23% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, Nebraska are hail, winter weather, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1994, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (11 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County include Wildfires (2026), Morrill-Cottonwood Fire (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1994.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Keith County, NE has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and McPherson County, NE has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 49 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 49% of US counties.