Keith County, NE
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Keith County has experienced 9 federally declared disasters since 2001, most recently Morrill-Cottonwood Fire in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Keith County's highest-rated hazards are hail, drought, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 34% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (26th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Keith County has been designated in 9 declarations since 2001, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (4), biological (2), fire (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuees |
| 2001 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding And Tornadoes |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 66.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 15.3 | 6 | 0 | $27K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 16.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 16.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 27.4 | 10 | 0 | $4.6M |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 84.4 | 105 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 36.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 53.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 16.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 36.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 58.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 75.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Keith County ranks in the 26th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 23rd | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 54th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 32nd | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 26th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 61st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 45.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 121 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 73 in 2016–20 vs 48 in 2021–25 (-34% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Keith County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Keith County, Nebraska are hail, drought, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Keith County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Keith County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2001, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (4 declarations).
Has Keith County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Keith County include Morrill-Cottonwood Fire (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 2001.
How does Keith County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Sedgwick County, CO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and McPherson County, NE has the lowest (Very Low). Keith County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Keith County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Keith County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Keith County's composite score of 14 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 14% of US counties.