Arthur County, NE
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Arthur County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1967, most recently Wildfires in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Arthur County's highest-rated hazards are wildfire, drought, and hail, with its top risk rated "Very Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 56% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (8th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Arthur County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1967, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (4), flood (3), fire (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2026 | Fire | Morrill-Cottonwood Fire |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms, Ice Jams, And Flooding |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1967.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.3 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 24.6 | 38 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 7.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 50.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Arthur County ranks in the 8th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 8th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 45th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 15th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 8th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 74th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 76th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 93.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 39 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 27 in 2016–20 vs 12 in 2021–25 (-56% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Arthur County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Arthur County, Nebraska are wildfire, drought, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Arthur County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Arthur County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (4 declarations).
Has Arthur County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Arthur County include Wildfires (2026), Morrill-Cottonwood Fire (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1967.
How does Arthur County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Keith County, NE has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and McPherson County, NE has the lowest (Very Low). Arthur County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Arthur County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Arthur County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Arthur County's composite score of 0 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 0% of US counties.