Grayson County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Grayson County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1982, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2021. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Grayson County's highest-rated hazards are hail, tornado, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 130% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Grayson County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1982, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (5), fire (4), hurricane (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1982.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 79.5 | 43 | 2 | $592K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 66.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | 47 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 92.9 | 5 | 1 | $780K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 53.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | 181 | 0 | $719K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 55.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 91.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 56.2 | 2 | 1 | $100K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 47.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 60.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Grayson County ranks in the 69th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 59th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 80th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 62nd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 59th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 69th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 69th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 64.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 277 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 84 in 2016–20 vs 193 in 2021–25 (+130% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Grayson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Grayson County, Texas are hail, tornado, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Grayson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Grayson County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1982, including declarations in 2021. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (5 declarations).
Has Grayson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Grayson County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm in 2021.
How does Grayson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Collin County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Marshall County, OK has the lowest (Relatively Low). Grayson County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Grayson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Grayson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Grayson County's composite score of 80 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 80% of US counties.