Denton County, TX

FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data

Population: 906,057 · Cities: Denton , Lewisville , Carrollton , Flower Mound , Little Elm , The Colony , Corinth , Highland Village , Trophy Club

Relatively High Riskier than 97% of US counties
Very Low Relatively Low Relatively Moderate Relatively High Very High

Denton County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1975, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Denton County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, hail, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 57% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.

Past disasters & FEMA designations

A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Denton County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1975, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (6), hurricane (5), fire (5).

2002–2026
Year Type Event name
2024 Flood Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding
2021 Severe Ice Storm Severe Winter Storms
2021 Severe Ice Storm Severe Winter Storm
2020 Biological Covid-19 Pandemic
2020 Biological Covid-19
2015 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding
2008 Fire Wildfires
2008 Hurricane Hurricane Ike
2008 Hurricane Hurricane Gustav
2007 Severe Storm Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1975.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.

Risk by hazard type

Hazard Risk rating Risk score Recorded events Deaths Prop. damage
Wildfire Relatively Moderate 93 0 0
Inland Flooding Relatively High 95.7 44 3 $1.2M
Coastal Flooding Not Applicable 0 0
Earthquake Relatively Low 74
Heat Wave Relatively High 98 53 7
Tornado Very High 99.8 10 0 $6.1M
Hurricane Very Low 58.4 0 0
Hail Very High 99.7 373 0 $364.3M
Strong Wind Relatively High 92.7 0 0
Winter Weather Relatively High 86.2 0 0
Ice Storm Very High 97.2
Cold Wave Relatively High 93.9
Lightning Relatively Moderate 80.6 22 0 $4.7M
Drought Relatively Low 36.9 0 0
Landslide Very Low 47.6 0 0
Avalanche Not Applicable
Tsunami Not Applicable
Volcanic Activity Not Applicable

Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.

Community vulnerability

Denton County ranks in the 38th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.

SVI theme Percentile Vulnerability level
Overall 38th Low
Socioeconomic status 31st Low
Household characteristics 37th Low
Racial & ethnic minority status 83rd High
Housing type & transportation 34th Low

Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.

Future risk outlook

Wildfire metric National percentile Level
Burn probability 73rd Relatively High
Risk to homes 73rd Relatively High
Buildings in direct exposure zone 24.0%

NOAA tracked 502 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 195 in 2016–20 vs 307 in 2021–25 (+57% — frequency increasing).

Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.

Nearby counties

Compare Denton County with other counties → All Texas counties →

Frequently asked questions

What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Denton County?

According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Denton County, Texas are tornado, hail, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.

Has Denton County received federal disaster declarations?

Yes. Denton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).

Has Denton County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?

Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Denton County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1975.

How does Denton County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?

Among neighboring counties, Dallas County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Wise County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Low). Denton County is rated Relatively High overall.

How is Denton County's composite disaster risk index calculated?

Denton County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Denton County's composite score of 97 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 97% of US counties.

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