Collin County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Collin County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Collin County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, hail, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 436 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is relatively low (30th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Collin County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1966, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (5), severe storm (4), fire (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 96.8 | 31 | 0 | $214K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 82 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.7 | 51 | 2 | — |
| Tornado | Very High | 99.9 | 9 | 0 | $1.7M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 59.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very High | 99.9 | 310 | 0 | $2.2B |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 87.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 91.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 95.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 67.7 | 35 | 0 | $8.0M |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 32.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 52.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Collin County ranks in the 30th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 24th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 36th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 85th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 24th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 57th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 59th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 17.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 436 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 215 in 2016–20 vs 221 in 2021–25 (+3% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Collin County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Collin County, Texas are tornado, hail, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Collin County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Collin County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (5 declarations).
Has Collin County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Collin County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1966.
How does Collin County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Dallas County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very High) and Fannin County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Low). Collin County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Collin County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Collin County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Collin County's composite score of 99 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 99% of US counties.