Clay County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Clay County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Clay County's highest-rated hazards are drought, earthquake, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 200% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Clay County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1969, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (13), flood (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 40 | 7 | 0 | $1.1M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 93.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.8 | 95 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 71.1 | 8 | 1 | $1.4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 49.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 28.9 | 35 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 51.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 68.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 93.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 81.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 80.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 51.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Clay County ranks in the 39th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 72nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 51st | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 9th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 11th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 26th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 49.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 144 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 36 in 2016–20 vs 108 in 2021–25 (+200% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Clay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Clay County, Arkansas are drought, earthquake, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Clay County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Clay County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (13 declarations).
Has Clay County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Clay County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Clay County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Butler County, MO has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Ripley County, MO has the lowest (Relatively Low). Clay County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Clay County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Clay County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Clay County's composite score of 72 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 72% of US counties.