Randolph County, AR
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Randolph County has experienced 27 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Randolph County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, ice storm, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 105 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (71st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Randolph County has been designated in 27 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (15), flood (4), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Tornadoes |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 45.5 | 67 | 0 | $18.1M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | 3 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 77.8 | 9 | 0 | $440K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 49.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 13.9 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 33.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 60.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 89.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 84.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 50.6 | 1 | 0 | $100K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 65.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 59.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Randolph County ranks in the 71st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 71st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 77th | High |
| Household characteristics | 79th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 28th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 53rd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 61st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 57th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 75.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 105 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 52 in 2016–20 vs 53 in 2021–25 (+2% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Randolph County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Randolph County, Arkansas are earthquake, ice storm, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Randolph County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Randolph County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (15 declarations).
Has Randolph County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Randolph County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms And Tornadoes (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Randolph County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Greene County, AR has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Oregon County, MO has the lowest (Relatively Low). Randolph County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Randolph County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Randolph County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Randolph County's composite score of 67 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 67% of US counties.