Bastrop County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Bastrop County has experienced 31 federally declared disasters since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Bastrop County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, inland flooding, and hail, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 39% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (76th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Bastrop County has been designated in 31 declarations since 1992, covering 8 disaster types including fire (13), flood (5), hurricane (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2016 | Fire | Hidden Pines Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 total declarations since 1992.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 71.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 86.2 | 28 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 21 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.6 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.1 | 6 | 0 | $155K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 63.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 85.1 | 51 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 68.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 79.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 57.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 74.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 70.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 76.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 43 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Bastrop County ranks in the 76th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 73rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 55th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 88th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 69th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 85.0% | — |
NOAA tracked 90 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 56 in 2016–20 vs 34 in 2021–25 (-39% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Bastrop County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Bastrop County, Texas are tornado, inland flooding, and hail. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Bastrop County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Bastrop County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is fire (13 declarations).
Has Bastrop County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Bastrop County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Winter Storm in 2023.
How does Bastrop County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Travis County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Lee County, TX has the lowest (Very Low). Bastrop County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Bastrop County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Bastrop County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Bastrop County's composite score of 81 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 81% of US counties.