Caldwell County, TX
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Caldwell County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Caldwell County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, hail, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 19% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (90th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Caldwell County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including fire (6), flood (5), hurricane (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds And Flooding |
| 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 87.1 | 25 | 2 | $12.8M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 19.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 74.1 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | 4 | 0 | $20K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 60.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 86.8 | 27 | 0 | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 67.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 41.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 54.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 63.8 | 1 | 0 | $100K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 85.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Caldwell County ranks in the 90th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 90th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 73rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 74th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 94th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 97th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 65th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 64th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 78.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 65 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 36 in 2016–20 vs 29 in 2021–25 (-19% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Caldwell County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Caldwell County, Texas are inland flooding, hail, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Caldwell County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Caldwell County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is fire (6 declarations).
Has Caldwell County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Caldwell County include Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Caldwell County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Travis County, TX has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Bastrop County, TX has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Caldwell County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Caldwell County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Caldwell County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Caldwell County's composite score of 80 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 80% of US counties.